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پاورپوینت کامل The Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR) Process 132 اسلاید در PowerPoint

اسلاید ۴: Bahill4WebsterBAE’s common processes are established by SP.12.15.02.

اسلاید ۵: Bahill5Typical decisionsDecision problems that may require a formal decision processTrade studies (eng_cat.shtml#GU0238)Bid/no-bidMake-reuse-buy (PW.10.01.01A017.html) Fagan inspection versus checklist inspection (FM.05-1077.xls)Tool selectionVendor selectionCost estimating

اسلاید ۶: Bahill6Purpose“In all decisions you gain something and lose something. Know what they are and do it deliberately.”

اسلاید ۷: Bahill7A Simple Model for Human Decision Making, Called Image Theory

اسلاید ۸: Bahill8ReferencesThe following description of image theory is based on Beach and Connolly (2005) and Bruce Gissing’s Roadmap to Business Excellence.L. R. Beach and T. Connolly, The Psychology of Decision Making: People in Organizations, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2005.B. Gissing, The Roadmap to Business Excellence, http://sie.arizona.edu/sysengr/sie554/BruceGissing/RoadMap.ppt, 2005. A. T. Bahill and B. Gissing, Re-evaluating systems engineering concepts using systems thinking, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, SMC-28(4): 516-527, 1998.

اسلاید ۹: Bahill9Image theory*Decision Makers (DMs) code their knowledge into three images.The value image contains principles of behavior.The trajectory image is the agenda of goals.The strategic image contains the plans for implementing the goals.

اسلاید ۱۰: Bahill10The value imageconsists of the DM’s vision, mission, values, morals, ethics, beliefs, evaluation criteria and standards for how things should be and how people ought to behave. Collectively these are called principles. They limit the goals that are worthy of pursuit and acceptable ways of pursuing these goals. Potential goals and actions that contradict the principles will be unacceptable. It is called the value image because it represents the DM’s vision about the state of events that conforms most closely to his or her principles.

اسلاید ۱۱: Bahill11The trajectory imageis the agenda of goals the DM wants to achieve. The goals are dictated by the problem statement, principles, opportunities, desires, competitive issues and gaps encountered in the environment. The goals are fed back to the value image. The DM’s goal agenda is called the trajectory image, because it is his or her vision about how the future should unfold.

اسلاید ۱۲: Bahill12The strategic imagecontains the plans for implementing the goals. Each plan has two aspects: tactics are the concrete behavioral aspects that deal with local environment conditions,forecasts are the anticipation of the future that describe what might result if the tactics are successful.The plans are also fed back to the value image. The collection of plans is called the strategic image, because it represents the DM’s vision of what he or she is trying to do to achieve the goals on the trajectory image.

اسلاید ۱۳: Bahill13Framing*means embedding observed events in a context that gives them meaning. The DM uses contextual information to probe his or her memory to find image constituents that are relevant to the decision at hand. This provides information about the goals and plans that were previously pursued in this context.If a similar goal is being pursued this time, then the plan that was used before may be reused.

اسلاید ۱۴: Bahill14Two types of decisionsAdoption decisions determine whether to add new goals to the trajectory image or new plans to the strategic image. Progress decisions determine whether a plan is making progress toward achieving a goal.

اسلاید ۱۵: Bahill15Adoption decisionsA new goal or plan can be added if it is compatible with the DM’s relevant principles, does not introduce unacceptable risk and does not interfere with existing goals or ongoing plans. Adoption decisions are accomplished by screening potential goals and plans one by one in light of relevant principles, existing goals and ongoing plans. If only one option passes screening, it is adopted. If two or more options pass the screen, then a tradeoff study determines the best option from among the survivors. Screening is the more common of these decision mechanism.

اسلاید ۱۶: Bahill16Progress decisionsuse the plan to forecast the future.If that future includes achieving a goal, then the plan is retained.If the forecast does not include achieving the goal, then the plan is rejected and a new plan is adopted in its place.

اسلاید ۱۷: Bahill17Two decision mechanismsThe incompatibility test screens options based on how well they fit the DM’s images. The profitability test focuses on the quality of the outcomes associated with the options.

اسلاید ۱۸: Bahill18The incompatibility testscreens options (plans and goals) based on their incompatibility with constituents* defined in the three images. Each option’s incompatibility increases as a function of the weighted sum of the number of violations.**Violations are defined as negations, contradictions, preventions, retardations or any other form of interference with the realization one of the images’ constituents. If the weighted sum of the violations exceeds some rejection threshold, then the option is rejected, otherwise it is adopted.

اسلاید ۱۹: Bahill19Profitability testWhen more than one option survives the incompatibility screen, the DM chooses the best using a profitability test. The profitability test is not a single decision mechanism.It is a repertory of strategies such as maximizing subjective expected utility, satisficing and performing tradeoff studies.The selected strategy depends on characteristics of the choice, characteristics of the environment, characteristics of the DM.

اسلاید ۲۰: Bahill20Image theory for organizations*Decisions in organizations are made by individual DMs, often forming a consensus. So for organizational decisions, we can use the individual decision making model that we have just developed. The only major addition is the need for a case for change.

اسلاید ۲۱: Bahill21The need for change*People do not make good decisions.A careful tradeoff study will help you overcome human ineptitude and thereby make better decisions.

اسلاید ۲۲: Bahill22Rational decisions*One goalPerfect information The optimal course of action can be describedThis course maximizes expected value This is a prescriptive model. We tell people that, in an ideal world, this is how they should make decisions.

اسلاید ۲۳: Bahill23Satisficing*When making decisions there is always uncertainty, too little time and insufficient resources to explore the whole problem space. Therefore, people cannot make rational decisions. The term satisficing was coined by Noble Laureate Herb Simon in 1955. Simon proposed that people do not attempt to find an optimal solution. Instead, they search for alternatives that are good enough, alternatives that satisfice.

اسلاید ۲۴: Bahill24Humans are not rational*1Mark Twain said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Humans are often very certain of knowledge that is false. What American city is directly north of Santiago Chile If you travel from Los Angeles to Reno Nevada, in what direction would you travel Most humans think that there are more words that start with the letter r, than there are with r as the third letter.

اسلاید ۲۵: Bahill25Illusions*We call these cognitive illusions.We believe them with as much certainty as we believe optical illusions.

اسلاید ۲۶: Bahill26The Müller-Lyer Illusion*

اسلاید ۲۷: Bahill27

اسلاید ۲۸: Bahill28

اسلاید ۲۹: Bahill29Humans judge probabilities poorly*

اسلاید ۳۰: Bahill30Monty Hall Paradox1*

اسلاید ۳۱: Bahill31Monty Hall Paradox2*

اسلاید ۳۲: Bahill32Monty Hall Paradox3*

اسلاید ۳۳: Bahill33Monty Hall Paradox4*

اسلاید ۳۴: Bahill34Monty Hall Paradox5*Now here is your problem. Are you better off sticking to your original choice or switchingA lot of people say it makes no difference. There are two boxes and one contains a ten-dollar bill. Therefore, your chances of winning are 50/50.However, the laws of probability say that you should switch.

اسلاید ۳۵: Bahill35Monty Hall Paradox6*The box you originally chose has, and always will have, a one-third probability of containing the ten-dollar bill. The other two, combined, have a two-thirds probability of containing the ten-dollar bill. But at the moment when I open the empty box, then the other one alone will have a two-thirds probability of containing the ten-dollar bill. Therefore, your best strategy is to always switch!

اسلاید ۳۶: Bahill36UtilityWe have just discussed the right column, subjective probability.Now we will discuss the bottom row, utility

اسلاید ۳۷: Bahill37UtilityUtility is a measure of the happiness, satisfaction or reward a person gains (or loses) from receiving a good or service.Utilities are numbers that express relative preferences using a particular set of assumptions and methods.Utilities include both subjectively judged value and the assessors attitude toward risk.

اسلاید ۳۸: Bahill38RiskSystems engineers use risk to evaluate and manage bad things that could happen, hazards. Risk is measured with the frequency (or probability) of occurrence times the severity of the consequences.However, in economics and in the psychology of decision making, risk is defined as the variance of the expected value, uncertainty.*

اسلاید ۳۹: Bahill39Ambiguity, uncertainty and hazards*Hazard: Would you prefer my forest picked mushrooms or portabella mushrooms from the grocery storeUncertainty: Would you prefer one of my wines or a Kendall-Jackson merlotAmbiguity: Would you prefer my saffron and oyster sauce or marinara sauce

اسلاید ۴۰: Bahill40Humans are not rationalEven if they had the knowledge and resources, people would not make rational decisions, because they do not evaluate utility rationally. Most people would be more concerned with a large potential loss than with a large potential gain. Losses are felt more strongly than equal gains. Which of these wagers would you prefer to take*$2 with probability of 0.5 and $0 with probability 0.5$1 with probability of 0.99 and $1,000,000 with probability 0.00000001$3 with probability of 0.999999 and -$1,999,997 with probability 0.000001They all have an expected value of $1

اسلاید ۴۱: Bahill41Gains and losses are not valued equally*

اسلاید ۴۲: Bahill42Subjective expected utilitycombines two subjective concepts: utility and probability.Utility is a measure of the happiness or satisfaction a person gains from receiving a good or service.Subjective probability is the person’s assessment of the frequency or likelihood of the event occurring. The subjective expected utility is the product of the utility times the probability.

اسلاید ۴۳: Bahill43Subjective expected utility theorymodels human decision making as maximizing subjective expected utilitymaximizing, because people choose the set of alternatives with the highest total utility, subjective, because the choice depends on the decision maker’s values and preferences, not on reality (e.g. advertising improves subjective perceptions of a product without improving the product), and expected, because the expected value is used. This is a first-order model for human decision making. Sometimes it is called Prospect