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تعداد صفحات این فایل: ۲۲ صفحه

بخشی از مقاله انگلیسیعنوان انگلیسی:Impact of Dividend Yield and Price Earnings Ratio on Stock Returns: A Study Non-Financial listed Firms of Pakistan~~en~~

Abstract

The economic behavior of companies have great importance because these behavior have great influence on performance of firms. In Pakistan, economic behavior has hardly explored. The present study analyzed the impact of dividend yield and price earnings ratio on stock returns. The relationship between size and stock price were also determined. In present study, the data of 111 non-financial KSE listed firms for period of 1998 to 2009 have used. The advance econometrics techniques were employed for analysis and determining the relationship of these variables. The impact of dividend yield and price earnings ratio on stock returns was determined by using fixed effect model. The findings of study reveals that price earnings ratio and size of firm have significant positive impact on stock prices. There were found significant negative relationship between dividend yield and stock prices. The findings also suggests that investors can apply investment criteria that employ size of firm and price earnings ratio anomalies to earn abnormal return.

۱ Introduction

Stock market is the most important part of any economy. The judgment of countries economic condition is measured through the performance of its stock market (Bashir et al., 2011). At the end of 2009, 651 companies were listed on Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). The paid up capital was Rs. 894.2 billion and percentage of GDP it was 6 percent. At the end 2009, aggregate market capitalization was Rs. 2,890 billion. Market capitalization to GDP is less than 20 percent, which is very low. Corporate profitability has decreased since 2006(GOP, 2009). After tax profit for the listed firms have decline 77 percent among 2006 to 2009. As compare to 2008, after tax profit decrease 67 percent in 2009, manifesting the impact of a difficult operating environment (GOP, 2009). A bad law and order situation in the country, the crisis of balance of payments and rupee depreciation of more than 20 percent, and the energy crisis have all combined to decline profits (GOP, 2009). The stander KSE100 share increase 33 percent, in line with having greater recovery in equity markets. At the end of 2009, dividend ratio to equity is same, which is 11 percent. Corporate sector dividend payout has been growing by 8.60 percent as compared to 8.83 percent in 2008.Earnings per share after tax which was Rs. 2.60 per share in 2008 has increased to Rs. 2.90 per share in 2009 (BSA, 2009). These financial ratios show the strength of a company. This strength attracts the investors if it has high earning and high total assets. They can invest in those stocks which have high growth and earn the abnormal returns.

For last few decades financial analysts trying to explore suitable models to value shares. Valuation of stock can be determined by many ways, two most important models among analysts are the Dividend Discount Model and the Earnings Multiplier model. Some literatures in finance suggest that the Dividend Discount Model is very important approach employed by the fundamentalists. The DDM assumes that the best estimate of the current value of a company’s common stock is the PV of the estimated divided by future dividends paid by company to its shareholders.

Some researchers, analysts, and investors suggest that this DDM approach has limited usefulness. According to MM (1961) argued that, DDM have some strict assumptions, under this strict assumptions, dividend is insignificant to the firm’s value. Therefore, no one can forecast dividends with great accuracy. Technically, we can call this model an estimate of all future dividends from now to infinity, which is an impossible. Finally, many investors prefer capital gain and as compare to dividends, some investors, focusing solely on dividend is less desirable.

Hence in the light of above restrictions and objections, the earnings multiplier or price earning model remains an important method to valuation. It is not as much sophisticated as DDM, less formal, more intuitive model and easy to use. In fact price earnings model help investors to understand DDM. Basu (1977) suggest that dividend is carried out of earning, investors must estimate the growth in earnings before going to estimate the growth in dividends.

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